The future of U.S. food production rests with succeeding generations. That's what makes this year's youthful View from the Cab farmers Katie Sanger Hancock and Ryan Brodersen epoch farmers in the evolution of American agriculture.
"There have been some (dryland) soybean fields harvested in this area making in the 40 bpa range," Katie told DTN.Important as it is, there are no fool-proof prescriptions for success. Sometimes it all comes down to luck of the draw when weather and markets misbehave. Right now Katie's rain luck is better than Ryan's, because more showers have fallen on her Mississippi River bottom farm near Water Valley, Kentucky.
But Ryan's luck with rain is close to zero, and soybean yields in his area near Randolph, Neb., show it. "I've been hearing dryland are making 10," he said.
Thanks to irrigation, sometimes planning overcomes luck for better yields. "Pretty good" is how Ryan describes his irrigated soybean crop. The irrigator on the last field to be watered was finally parked last week. But even irrigated yields sometimes fall below expectations, especially this year. "Some irrigated soybeans are just so-so," he said. Short-maturity beans and super-heated summer temperatures during blooming get the blame.
Moisture levels at about 12% have been consistent on drought-stressed plants holding both green leaves and dry pods.
Ryan still has 2,100 acres of crop left to harvest. Eighty dryland acres, the only corn he harvested last week, yielded about 35 bushels per acre. Grain moisture levels are up there at 18% to 22%.
Katie's corn harvest is over. It's the same for most of her neighbors. A low river and high freight rates made on-farm storage critical. Katie has seen farmers pile corn on the ground. That's a first for her area. And at least one buyer has resorted to an alternative form of grain storage. "Tubular plastic bags that hold 18,000 bushels of corn have been used at one nearby elevator," she said.
With dry conditions persisting and fire a constant threat, Ryan has kept a water truck at the edge of fields during harvest -- just in case. "I've been pretty nervous about starting a fire," he said. That strategy paid off last week when a bad bearing on one combine got so hot it started to smoke. "We drove it to the water truck and put it out," he said.
Even as harvest continues, cropping plans for next year's production are under way. Wheat is a profitable crop in Katie's area. "In a typical year we can make similar profits from wheat and double-crop soybeans as a corn crop," she said. In her longer-than-average mid-South growing season, two crops in one is a winner. That's why wheat is popular with Katie and her neighbors. She thinks planted wheat acres there this fall will be high.
Last week DTN featured an article titled "A Mandate for Mankind" about rising world populations and the increasing need for food. For the record, DTN asked Ryan and Katie what their farming operations will look like by the year 2050.
At 26 today, Katie will be age 64 as the world population approaches 9 billion souls. She thinks human reproduction depends to a certain extent on available food resources, and food in America seems cheap compared to other places. But grocery bills here are inflated by non-food items purchased on the same ticket. She argues against diverting funds from domestic infrastructure improvement to developing food production elsewhere around the globe because America is a proven agricultural powerhouse. Technology, environment and efficient use of resources will be important factors.
"We'll probably have more products in order to take advantage of double or triple cropping. I see us using every season and all our acres," she said.
Halfway through the century, Ryan will be 68. He started farming 11 years ago. In 2050 he will have 49 years of farming experience. "I am amazed at how things have changed since I started farming," he said. World demand is growing. Markets are nothing at all like they were just a few short years ago. Ryan is optimistic that farmers like him will find a way to grow food the world needs. He also sees one immediate need that hasn't been met: "I haven't seen any real improvement in soybean yields," he said. And profitability of livestock operations will have to improve if animal protein is to remain in human diets. He also worries that irrigation could suffer if important aquifers aren't replenished.
"I have to keep reminding myself not to make decisions on things that happened in the past," he said. "A lot of the things we worry about will never happen."
Richard Oswald can be reached at richard.oswald@telventdtn.com
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